MISSION: To provide clients with the essential macroeconomic narrative to profit in the global economy.
PHILOSOPHY: We focus on changes to key macro variables (fiscal, monetary, regulatory and geopolitical) to predict future asset prices.
STEP 1: Identify Overall Macro Context
- What is the big picture?
- What is the outlook for real inflation and growth?
- What is prospective economic policy?
• STEP 2: Evaluate Key Macro Variables
- What key macro variables are driving markets at the margin?
- What is the strongest market narrative of recent events within the context of the identified variable(s)?
• STEP 3: Deliver Actionable Macro Intelligence
- What is the most likely scenario based on the BWR narrative during the near-term?
- What will be driving factors/variables over the longer-term?
- What investment implications/recommendations should be communicated to clients?
Core Tenets of the Economic and Political Model of Bretton Woods Research
- A well functioning economy starts with the producer and the exchange of goods and services between fellow producers.
- Risk-taking (and the policies and events that promote it) is a necessary ingredient of growth.
Paying attention to the margin (i.e., the unfolding developments in fiscal, monetary, regulatory and geopolitical events) will uncover and direct one to investment opportunities through-out the global economy.
Gold is the monetary North Star and remains the best unit of account for valuing currencies. A currency's gold price is the best signal of long-term inflationary or deflationary pressures being transmitted into the respective economy.
- There is an optimal tax rate between 0 and 100% at which the government will incur the maximum amount of revenue without compromising economic growth.